It was the threat of cutting off trade by the Trump administration that may have compelled India and Pakistan to step back from the brink of an all-out war. Yet, there is still no sign of the two nuclear armed nations coming to the negotiating table. The ceasefire after four days of intense conflict remains tentative, as Indian prime minister Narendra Modi continues with his war cry.
There is also no indication that the ultra-nationalist government in New Delhi would be willing to withdraw its decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty, a move Islamabad considers an act of war. The stand-off is far from over and any misstep from either side could trigger a wider conflagration with serious implications for the region and beyond. It remains to be seen whether the Trump administration can mediate peace between the two arch rivals.
It seems quite unlikely that New Delhi will accept President Trump’s offer to facilitate talks between the two countries on Kashmir and other outstanding issues. The Modi government has maintained India’s longstanding position of not accepting international mediation on what New Delhi has described as a bilateral matter. The Indian prime minister reiterated his hard-line position in his public address a day after the ceasefire, declaring that Indian military action was not over. “Blood and water cannot flow together,” he declared. He also lay claim to Pakistan-administered Kashmir.
While the worst may be over, peace remains elusive in what is one of the world’s most volatile regions.- Zahid Hussain
New Delhi built a case for its aggression by trying to implicate Pakistan in the terror attack in Pahalgam in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, and the massacre of some two dozen tourists. However, it failed to substantiate its allegation. It has never officially identified any militant network allegedly operating from Pakistan involved in the attack.
In fact, the Modi government has tried to cover up its own intelligence failures. The Indian government could not convince the international community about Pakistan’s alleged complicity in the terror attack. Such a daring attack in a highly protected area demonstrates the failure of its own security agencies. The terror attack in one of the most secure regions also shattered the perception built by the Indian government that the situation in the territory it administered was completely under control after its unilateral decision in 2019 to abolish the semi-autonomous status of the state.
Days after the Pahalgam incident, the Modi government announced it was suspending the landmark Indus Waters Treaty that regulated the flow of Indus waters between the two countries. The treaty facilitated by the World Bank that was signed in 1960 has survived several wars and conflicts, and the reckless decision by the Modi government heightened tensions between the two countries, while raising the spectre of a wider conflict.
India escalated the threat by launching simultaneous air strikes in several Pakistani cities on the night of May 6th and into the early hours of May 7th, falsely claiming to have targeted ‘terrorist infrastructure.’ It was the first time since the 1971 war that India launched airstrikes into Pakistan’s mainland. The unwarranted Indian action was immediately responded to by Pakistan. Hours later, Pakistan’s air force shot down five Indian fighter planes which included the newly inducted and most advanced French-made Rafael fighter planes. This was certainly not the kind of response India had expected.
India went up the escalatory ladder again by targeting Pakistani air and military bases. Missiles and drones rained over Pakistani cities. Pakistan’s forces responded to that Indian action with the same intensity. The escalation caused serious concern in Washington and other capitals. Diplomatic efforts gained momentum as the confrontation took a more serious turn.
President Trump has claimed it was US intervention that prevented a nuclear war between the two nations, though India continues to deny yielding to any outside pressure. It was perhaps for the first time that trade has been leveraged by an American administration in peace diplomacy.
While the worst may be over, peace remains elusive in what is one of the world’s most volatile regions. Notwithstanding India’s denial, it was once again external pressures that helped to defuse the situation. India is certainly not happy that the US, which it considers a strategic ally, stayed neutral in the conflict and played the role of arbiter.
Yet, there is a limit to the role of an external power in bridging the widening cleavage between the two warring neighbors. After all, this is not the first time a US administration has offered mediation on the festering problem of Kashmir.
Both sides have now declared victory in a conflict that has resolved nothing. The major lesson for both nations to learn is that war cannot offer any solutions. The ceasefire agreement may have brought about a cessation of hostilities but the situation remains volatile. This is a no-win war.
Published in: Dawn News