THE exchange of missiles has stopped and the guns have fallen silent after four days of intense conflict that had threatened to turn into an all-out war between two nuclear-armed South Asian nations.
Both India and Pakistan have stepped back from the brink after a US-brokered ceasefire. The fighting may have stopped, yet tentativeness surrounds the fragile ceasefire.
There is no indication yet that India is willing to enter into meaningful negotiations with Pakistan over the major sources of tension. The outcome of four days of the most intense military confrontation between the two countries in decades has not been what the right-wing ultra-nationalist Indian government desired when it launched simultaneous missile attacks in many Pakistani cities. The unwarranted aggression was immediately responded to by Pakistan with a ferocity that India had not bargained for.
India lost the advantage within hours of launching attacks when Pakistan shot down five of its most advanced fighter planes in what was an epic air battle with little precedent in modern air warfare. India went up the escalatory ladder by targeting Pakistani air and military bases. Missiles and drones rained over Pakistani cities. Pakistani forces also responded to that Indian action with greater intensity.
The four days of confrontation brought the prospect of a full-scale war between the two nuclear-armed nations precariously closer than at any time before, causing serious concern in Washington and other capitals. Although President Donald Trump’s administration was engaged with the leadership of both countries from the beginning, diplomatic efforts gained momentum as the confrontation took a more serious turn.
It was once again external intervention that helped stop the conflict between the two countries.
It was once again external intervention that helped stop the conflict between the two countries. President Trump claimed that US intervention had prevented a nuclear war between the two nations, though India continues to deny yielding to any outside pressure. Trump has not only offered US diplomatic mediation to bring down tensions between the two countries but has also tied peace to economic engagement. His linking of trade with truce may have also compelled both sides to de-escalate.
Modi’s move to authorise his military commanders to take cross-border military action in the event of a militant attack in the disputed territory was most perturbing. According to some analysts, the decision indicated further scaling down of the threshold for military action. It seems that the Modi government has not learnt any lesson from the latest and the 2019 military incursions against Pakistan.
India’s doctrine of keeping the conflict below the nuclear threshold has been countered on both occasions by Pakistan’s response, which demonstrated the conventional capability to thwart Indian military adventurism. The downing of Indian fighter planes has been seen as Pakistan’s edge in modern high-tech air warfare. In 2019, too, Pakistani forces shot down an Indian fighter plane and captured its pilot.
But analysts say that what happened in the latest round of conflict has exposed India’s claim of conventional superiority. The Modi government took a two-pronged approach when it decided to go for kinetic action against Pakistan following the Pahalgam terrorist attack that had left more than two dozen dead. While broadening the spectrum of military operations by extending it to Pakistan’s mainland, New Delhi also tried to isolate Islamabad internationally.
Unlike 2019, it could not get support from Washington and its other Western allies for its military action. Trump’s decision to stay neutral in the conflict was the biggest diplomatic setback for the Modi government, particularly as India is considered a strategic ally of Washington. It disrupted India’s entire strategy of ‘punishing’ Pakistan.
Meanwhile, China’s diplomatic backing and its military cooperation gave a huge boost to Pakistan’s confidence in confronting military power. The Pakistan Air Force with advanced Chinese missiles executed a sensor-fusion kill. This has been a strong geopolitical message for India.
However, while Pakistan has reason to celebrate its forces’ successful defence against aggression, it is not time to declare victory. Rather, it is time for reflection. The conflict has also exposed some of our own vulnerabilities. In the midst of the confrontation, our major worry was whether the IMF would approve the next tranche of its loan. With a weak economy, successfully defending one’s sovereignty is difficult.
The ceasefire now in place has provided the country with some space to focus on the economy. Similarly, it is essential to restore political stability in the country. A politically divided nation and the conflict within make the country extremely vulnerable. There are many more lessons to learn as we walk back from the brink.
Published in: Dawn News
Link here: Back from the brink
Tags:
Pakistan and India